Methodology

How Firmwatch estimates financial risk and company value

Firmwatch turns public company filings into plain-English signals. The outputs are designed for screening and monitoring, not as formal valuations, credit decisions or legal advice.

Public data only

Firmwatch uses public Companies House accounts, company profile data, SIC classifications and public risk records. We do not use private bank data, management accounts or lender data.

Signals, not guarantees

Risk bands and scores are indicators from visible public filings. They are not insolvency predictions, credit ratings or guarantees of future company behaviour.

Estimated value range

Estimated company value is based mainly on visible balance-sheet strength. It is not the true sale price, market value, tax valuation or a formal valuation opinion.

Insolvency risk score

The score is a public-data screening model. It looks for balance-sheet stress and filing freshness, then converts those signals into a band such as low, watch, elevated, high or critical.

  • negative or thin net assets
  • negative or limited working capital
  • weak current ratio where current assets and current liabilities are disclosed
  • cash at bank where disclosed
  • age of the latest available accounts
  • recent public risk events where available

Estimated company value

The value estimate is a public-data range. Where net assets are available, the model uses visible balance-sheet value as its base and adjusts confidence based on how much supporting financial detail was extracted.

Public-data estimate, not a formal valuation.

  • net assets where disclosed
  • working-capital visibility
  • current assets and current liabilities where disclosed
  • confidence level based on how much public balance-sheet detail is available

Important limitations

Companies House filings can be abbreviated, delayed or missing fields that would normally be required for a full commercial analysis. A field shown as not disclosed is not necessarily zero.

Firmwatch estimates are not a substitute for professional due diligence. They do not include private contracts, cash-flow forecasts, debt terms, customer concentration, tax liabilities, asset quality, management information or live bank balances.

Use Firmwatch as an early warning and comparison layer. For lending, acquisition, investment, tax, legal or insolvency decisions, use qualified professional advice and source documents.